A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
